Forecasting COVID-19 in Morocco
Mohammed Layelmam 1 * , Y. Ahmed Laaziz 2, Said Benchelha 3, Yahya Diyer 4, Sarra Rarhibou 5
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1 SI Laboratory, Institute Agronomic and Veterinary Hassan II, Rabat, Morocco
2 LGTE Laboratory, Chouaïb Doukkali University, Faculty of Sciences, El Jadida, Morocco
3 GAIA Laboratory, Hassan II University, Faculty of Sciences, Aïn Chock, Casablanca Morocco
4 LURIGOR Laboratory, Faculty of Juridical, Economic and Social Sciences, Oujda, Morocco
5 RMSO Laboratory, Faculty of Juridical, Economic and Social Sciences, Kenitra, Morocco
* Corresponding Author

Abstract

The COVID-19 has become a public health emergency of international concern. As of April 26, 2020, this pandemic has caused in Morocco more than 4065 confirmed infections and more than 161 reported deaths. To mitigate this epidemic threat and act quickly, it is very important to monitor and analyze changing trends and predict what might happen in the future. The main objective of this paper is to develop a successful prediction. We used in this study at the end of each week the TBATS model to forecast confirmed cases. This model is calculated on the basis of the daily historical data. From the results obtained we can conclude that the predictions obtained are close to reality and for the peak of this epidemic is not yet identified. The obtained results shows that this epidemics will continue to grow. For our forecast from 04/27/2020 to 05/03/2020 we estimate that the number of affected cases will achieve 4367 cases.

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Article Type: Research Article

https://doi.org/10.5799/jcei/8264

J Clin Exp Invest, 2020 - Volume 11 Issue 3, Article No: em00748

Publication date: 11 May 2020

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Article Downloads: 633

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